TERMIUM Plus®

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ANALISIS RIESGO [1 record]

Record 1 2016-05-12

English

Subject field(s)
  • Statistical Methods
  • Decision-Making Process
  • Economic Planning
DEF

An approach to problem analysis which weighs risks in a situation by introducing probabilities to give a more accurate assessment of the risks involved.

CONT

In probability analysis a specific probability distribution is assigned to each variable selected within the sensitivity analysis step. Risk analysis exploits Monte Carlo simulation techniques to aggregate the probabilities assigned to the critical variables. In choosing the level of aggregation of the possibly critical variables within the sensitivity analysis, the literature suggests focusing on low-level quantities that compose the grand categories of cash flow.

OBS

risk analysis: Not to be confused with sensitivity analysis.

OBS

The result is most commonly reported in the form of a cumulative probability curve plotted on a graph, in which the vertical axis represents the probability that a measure of project worth will fall below a stated value, and the horizontal axis represents the values of the measure of project worth.

French

Domaine(s)
  • Méthodes statistiques
  • Processus décisionnel
  • Planification économique
DEF

Technique d'analyse de problèmes faisant appel au calcul des probabilités pour évaluer les risques d'échec en matière de prévisions ainsi que les coûts éventuels de ces échecs pour l'organisation.

Spanish

Campo(s) temático(s)
  • Métodos estadísticos
  • Proceso de adopción de decisiones
  • Planificación económica
DEF

Técnica analítica mediante la que se determinan las probabilidades de ocurrencia con respecto a todos los elementos críticos del proyecto y después, por computadora, se hacen cálculos repetidos de una medida del valor del proyecto, en que cada elemento entra en computaciones sucesivas de acuerdo con su probabilidad de ocurrencia. El resultado se da a conocer más comúnmente en forma de una curva de probabilidad acumulativa trazada sobre un gráfico, en el que el eje vertical representa la probabilidad de que una medida del valor del proyecto caiga por debajo de un valor establecido, y el eje horizontal representa los valores de la medida del valor del proyecto.

OBS

Compárese con análisis de sensibilidad.

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