TERMIUM Plus^®

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Ensemble Prediction Systems(EPS) are numerical weather prediction(NWP) systems that allow us to estimate the uncertainty in a weather forecast as well as the most likely outcome. Instead of running the NWP model once(a deterministic forecast), the model is run many times from very slightly different initial conditions.  7, fiche 1, Anglais, - ensemble%20weather%20forecast%20system

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Les systèmes de prévision d'ensemble sont des systèmes de prévision numérique du temps qui nous permettent d'évaluer l'incertitude des prévisions météorologiques ainsi que leurs incidences les plus probables. Au lieu de faire tourner le modèle de prévision numérique une seule fois (prévision déterministe), on le fait tourner plusieurs fois avec des conditions initiales très légèrement différentes.  3, fiche 1, Français, - syst%C3%A8me%20de%20pr%C3%A9vision%20m%C3%A9t%C3%A9orologique%20d%27ensemble

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In terms of rainfall predictions, the general weather forecast is considered more accurate as regional affects are included. However, general weather forecasts are limited to brief rainfall descriptions, such as "chance of showers" rather than numerical estimates.  3, fiche 2, Anglais, - chance%20of%20showers

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Nous sommes sous le coup d'une météo instable cette semaine. L'instabilité se caractérise bien souvent par des averses qui peuvent nous surprendre. C'est pour cela que nous parlons de risque d'averses. Toutefois, il se peut que nous ne recevions aucune goutte d'eau quand nous nous trouvons dans une zone où il y a un risque d'averses.  1, fiche 2, Français, - risque%20d%27averses

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Forecast Models : Forecasters use numerical weather models to make their forecasts. These numerical models are classified into four main classes. The first is global models, which focus on the entire northern hemisphere. The second is national models, which focus on the USA. The third is regional models. These regional models have a finer grid than national models and are run out for smaller periods of time. The final class of models is relocatable models, which do not focus on any permanent geographical location. Relocatable models are very limited on the size of the geographical area for which they can forecast, but these models have very high resolutions, or very small forecast grid boxes.  2, fiche 3, Anglais, - weather%20forecast%20model

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The data were distributed less than three hours after sensing to European and North American meteorological centers for assimilation into their weather forecast model.  1, fiche 3, Anglais, - weather%20forecast%20model

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Simulation informatique qui reproduit les conditions atmosphériques présentes et qui permet d'évaluer comment elles vont évoluer dans les 10 prochains jours.  1, fiche 3, Français, - mod%C3%A8le%20de%20pr%C3%A9vision%20m%C3%A9t%C3%A9orologique

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Le modèle de prévisions SEF (Ritchie 1991) est à la base des prévisions mensuelles. Il s'agit du même modèle qui est utilisé tous les jours pour les prévisions à moyen terme (jusqu'à 10 jours), mais pour lequel quelques modifications à la dynamique et à la physique ont été apportées pour qu'il puisse fonctionner en mode climat.  3, fiche 3, Français, - mod%C3%A8le%20de%20pr%C3%A9vision%20m%C3%A9t%C3%A9orologique

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Dérivés des modèles de prévision du temps, les modèles numériques de prévision du climat nécessitent la description de processus complexes et la mise en œuvre d'importantes campagnes de mesures.  2, fiche 3, Français, - mod%C3%A8le%20de%20pr%C3%A9vision%20m%C3%A9t%C3%A9orologique

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La prévision météorologique repose, pour une large part, sur l'emploi de logiciels de simulation numérique de l'atmosphère, couramment appelés «modèles».  4, fiche 3, Français, - mod%C3%A8le%20de%20pr%C3%A9vision%20m%C3%A9t%C3%A9orologique

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For a numerical weather prediction model, statistical relations between model-forecast variables and observed weather variables, used for either correction of model-forecast variables or prediction of variables not explicitly forecast by the model.  3, fiche 4, Anglais, - model%20output%20statistics

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Model output statistics [is] a set of statistical equations that uses model output to forecast the probability of precipitation, high and low temperature, cloud cover, and precipitation amount ...  4, fiche 4, Anglais, - model%20output%20statistics

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Model output statistics... have often taken the form of multilinear regression equations derived by screening potential model-forecast variables as predictors. The method produces forecasts of weather variables that to some extent account for the random and systematic errors in the numerical weather prediction model.  3, fiche 4, Anglais, - model%20output%20statistics

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The difference between model output statistics (MOS) and perfect prognostic is that in MOS the predictand is related to the actual model output, while in perfect prog, the predictand is related to observations or representations of them at (nearly) concurrent times.  3, fiche 4, Anglais, - model%20output%20statistics

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model output statistics: term rarely used in the singular form (model output statistic).  5, fiche 4, Anglais, - model%20output%20statistics

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Forecast Models : Forecasters use numerical weather models to make their forecasts. These numerical models are classified into four main classes. The first is global models, which focus on the entire northern hemisphere. The second is national models, which focus on the USA. The third is regional models. These regional models have a finer grid than national models and are run out for smaller periods of time. The final class of models is relocatable models, which do not focus on any permanent geographical location. Relocatable models are very limited on the size of the geographical area for which they can forecast, but these models have very high resolutions, or very small forecast grid boxes.  2, fiche 5, Anglais, - global%20model

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La méthode à points de grille exigera alors que certaines conditions soient remplies aux frontières de la maille horizontale, conditions qui sont généralement fournies par un modèle hémisphérique ou global.  1, fiche 5, Français, - mod%C3%A8le%20global

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Forecaster's judgement, based on an analysis or a numerical forecast, of the future development of a weather situation.  2, fiche 6, Anglais, - prognosis

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Jugement du prévisionniste, basé sur une analyse ou une prévision numérique, de l'évolution future de la situation météorologique.  1, fiche 6, Français, - pronostic

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Juicio emitido por un predictor sobre las condiciones futuras de la atmósfera, basado en un análisis.  1, fiche 6, Espagnol, - pron%C3%B3stico%20meteorol%C3%B3gico

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The Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies(CPTEC) of the National Institute for Space Research(INPE), located in Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil, develops, produces and disseminates weather forecasts as well as seasonal climate forecasts since early 1995.... It is a regional focal point for numerical seasonal climate forecast for Brazil and the rest of the continent.  3, fiche 7, Anglais, - regional%20focal%20point

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & "Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 8, Anglais, - discriminating%20forecast

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C. Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R. Verret, and Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N. Yacowar, G. Richard, N. Brunet, H. Yang, in CMC Information, VII, No. 4.  1, fiche 9, Anglais, - Quebec%20Meteorological%20Centre

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References :"Case Study : Revised Analyses and Their Impact on a Numerical Forecast over the Eastern Pacific Ocean", E Kirkwood, & "Cloud and Precipitation Verification of CMC Subjective Prognosis", G Pellerin, in The Monthly Review, V II, No 12; "Parameterization of Clouds, Precipitation and Radiation for Forecast Models", Yves Delage, September 1979; and "On the Influence of the Technique of Nonlinear Normal Mode Initialization on the Nonconvective Precipitation Rate", Lejenas, H, 1980, Monthly Weather Review, Vol 108.  1, fiche 10, Anglais, - vertical%20interpolation

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & "Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 11, Anglais, - raw%20predictor

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 12, Anglais, - raw%20data%20base

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 13, Anglais, - three%2Ddimensional%20consistency

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & "Development of a MOS system to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 14, Anglais, - step%20function%20distribution

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & "Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 15, Anglais, - simulated%20cloud%20cover

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References :"The Value of Observational Data in the Forecast Production Process", I Findleton, "Numerical Weather Element Data to Day 5-An Experimental Output Form", M Dunlop, K Johnstone, & Objective and Numerical Forecasting", J Hallé, in CMC Information, Vol III, No 1.  1, fiche 16, Anglais, - half%2Dday%20model

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & "Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 17, Anglais, - transformed%20predictor

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 18, Anglais, - early%20guidance%20MOS%20output

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & "Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 19, Anglais, - extra%20variance%20explained

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & "Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 20, Anglais, - height%2Dto%2Dheight%20correlation

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & "Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 21, Anglais, - model%20accuracy

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References :"The Value of Observational Data in the Forecast Production Process", I Findleton, "Numerical Weather Element Data to Day 5-An Experimental output Form", M Dunlop, K Johnstone, & "Numerical Processing of Satellite Data at the CMC : Effects on Objective and Numerical Forecasting", J Hallé, in CMC Information, Vol III, No 1.  1, fiche 22, Anglais, - fixed%20lapse%20rate

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & "Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 23, Anglais, - worded%20weather%20forecast

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & "Development of MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 24, Anglais, - sensitive%20predictor

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References :"Tests of a Fine-Mesh Model over Europe and the United States", Monthly Weather Review, Vol 107, pp 980-982, Richard Anthes and Daniel Keyser, August 1979, and "Case Study : Revised Analyses and Their Impact on a Numerical Forecast over the Eastern Pacific Ocean", E Kirkwood, & "Cloud and Precipitation Verification of CMC Subjective Prognosis", G Pellerin, in The Monthly Review, V II, No 12.  1, fiche 25, Anglais, - near%20zonal%20stream

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & "Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 26, Anglais, - upstream%20observations

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References :"The Value of Observational Data in the Forecast Production Process", I Findleton, "Numerical Weather Element Data to Day 5-An Experimental Output Form", M Dunlop, K Johnstone, & "Numerical Processing of Satellite Data at the CMC : Effects on Objective and Numerical Forecasting", J Hallé, in CMC Information, Vol III, No 1.  1, fiche 27, Anglais, - optimal%20interpolation%20method

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & "Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 28, Anglais, - continuous%20predictor

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & "Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 29, Anglais, - geophysical%20field

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Référence : "Filtrage spatial et post-traitement", "Principales différences entre V8 et V9", "Analyse de l'humidité", and "Bogus de l'humidité", Chapters IV - VII, Notes for RPN course ?  1, fiche 29, Français, - champ%20g%C3%A9ophysique

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & "Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 30, Anglais, - subjective%20performance%20curve

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Record number: 31, Textual support number: 1 OBS

References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & "Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 31, Anglais, - regression%20equation%20correlation%20coefficient

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & "Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 32, Anglais, - stepwise%20regression%20technique

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R Verret, & "Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 33, Anglais, - multiple%20linear%20correlation

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References :"The Value of Observational Data in the Forecast Production Process", I Findleton, "Numerical Weather Element Data to Day 5-An Experimental Output Form", M Dunlop, K Johnstone, & "Numerical Processing of Satellite Data at the CMC : Effects on Objective and Numerical Forecasting", J Hallé, in CMC Information, Vol III, No 1.  1, fiche 34, Anglais, - data%20cutoff%20window

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References :"Relation of Numerical Weather Element Prediction in Canada to the State of the Art", C Anderson, "CMC Objective Cloud Cover Forecasts-the Production, Interpretation and Use", R verret, & "Development of a MOS System to Forecast the Probability of Precipitation", N Yacowar, G Richard, N Brunet, H Yang, in CMC Information, V II, No 4.  1, fiche 35, Anglais, - technological%20curve

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