TERMIUM Plus^®

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Ensemble Prediction Systems(EPS) are numerical weather prediction(NWP) systems that allow us to estimate the uncertainty in a weather forecast as well as the most likely outcome. Instead of running the NWP model once(a deterministic forecast), the model is run many times from very slightly different initial conditions.  7, fiche 1, Anglais, - ensemble%20weather%20forecast%20system

Fiche 1,  Justifications,  Français

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Les systèmes de prévision d'ensemble sont des systèmes de prévision numérique du temps qui nous permettent d'évaluer l'incertitude des prévisions météorologiques ainsi que leurs incidences les plus probables. Au lieu de faire tourner le modèle de prévision numérique une seule fois (prévision déterministe), on le fait tourner plusieurs fois avec des conditions initiales très légèrement différentes.  3, fiche 1, Français, - syst%C3%A8me%20de%20pr%C3%A9vision%20m%C3%A9t%C3%A9orologique%20d%27ensemble

Fiche 1,  Justifications,  Espagnol

Fiche 2,  Justifications,  Anglais

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For a numerical weather prediction model, statistical relations between model-forecast variables and observed weather variables, used for either correction of model-forecast variables or prediction of variables not explicitly forecast by the model.  3, fiche 2, Anglais, - model%20output%20statistics

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Model output statistics [is] a set of statistical equations that uses model output to forecast the probability of precipitation, high and low temperature, cloud cover, and precipitation amount ...  4, fiche 2, Anglais, - model%20output%20statistics

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Model output statistics... have often taken the form of multilinear regression equations derived by screening potential model-forecast variables as predictors. The method produces forecasts of weather variables that to some extent account for the random and systematic errors in the numerical weather prediction model.  3, fiche 2, Anglais, - model%20output%20statistics

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The difference between model output statistics (MOS) and perfect prognostic is that in MOS the predictand is related to the actual model output, while in perfect prog, the predictand is related to observations or representations of them at (nearly) concurrent times.  3, fiche 2, Anglais, - model%20output%20statistics

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model output statistics: term rarely used in the singular form (model output statistic).  5, fiche 2, Anglais, - model%20output%20statistics

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Fiche 3,  Justifications,  Anglais

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The Working Group on Numerical Experimentation(WGNE), jointly established by the Joint Scientific Committee on the WCRP and the WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences(CAS) has the responsibility of fostering the development of atmospheric circulation models for use in weather prediction and climate studies on all time scales and diagnosing shortcomings. WGNE promotes co-ordinated numerical experimentation for validating model results, observed atmospheric properties, exploring the natural and forced variability and predictability of the atmosphere,(e. g the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project, AMIP), as well as studies aimed at refined numerical techniques, and the formulation of atmospheric physics processes. WGNE also monitors the advances in data assimilation and analysis methods and is the focal point in WCRP for encouraging and reviewing the reanalysis projects carried out at various centres with fixed state-of-the-art assimilation systems providing a multi-year homogenous data set for a range of atmospheric and climate diagnostic studies.  2, fiche 3, Anglais, - Working%20Group%20on%20Numerical%20Experimentation

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Fiche 4,  Justifications,  Anglais

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Forecasting method based on statistical relationships, derived over a long period of time, between locally observed weather elements and output parameters of a numerical prediction model.  1, fiche 4, Anglais, - model%20output%20statistics%20technique

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The method thus takes account of local climate and any bias in the model.  1, fiche 4, Anglais, - model%20output%20statistics%20technique

Fiche 4,  Justifications,  Français

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Méthode de prévision basée sur des relations statistiques, obtenues sur une longue période de temps, entre les éléments météorologiques observés localement et les paramètres de sortie d'un modèle de prévision numérique.  1, fiche 4, Français, - technique%20des%20statistiques%20des%20sorties%20de%20mod%C3%A8les

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La méthode tient ainsi compte du climat local et des biais possibles du modèle.  1, fiche 4, Français, - technique%20des%20statistiques%20des%20sorties%20de%20mod%C3%A8les

Fiche 4,  Justifications,  Espagnol

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Método de predicción basado en relaciones estadísticas, obtenidas en un largo período de tiempo, entre los elementos meteorológicos observados localmente y los parámetros de salida de un modelo de predicción numérica.  1, fiche 4, Espagnol, - t%C3%A9cnica%20estad%C3%ADstica%20para%20las%20salidas%20de%20modelos

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De esta manera, el método tiene en cuenta tanto el clima local como las desviaciones posibles del modelo.  1, fiche 4, Espagnol, - t%C3%A9cnica%20estad%C3%ADstica%20para%20las%20salidas%20de%20modelos