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FORECAST WEATHER MODEL [11 records]

Record 1 2023-02-13

English

Subject field(s)
  • Federal Government Bodies and Committees (Canadian)
  • Meteorological Forecasting, Data Measurement and Analysis
OBS

In late 1997, Environment Canada's Prairie and Northern Region decided to re-organize its weather service program along a "centre of expertise" model. All aviation forecast services were consolidated in Edmonton, along with forecasting responsibility for the Canadian Arctic. The Prairie Aviation and Arctic Weather Centre(PAAWC) produces aviation forecasts for the three prairie provinces, the Northwest Territories, and Nunavut(just over 50% of Canada by area), and it looks after 1/3 of the aerodrome forecasts(TAFs).

Key term(s)
  • Prairie Aviation and Arctic Weather Center

French

Domaine(s)
  • Organismes et comités fédéraux (Gouvernement canadien)
  • Prévisions météorologiques et mesure et analyse des données

Spanish

Save record 1

Record 2 2022-11-15

English

Subject field(s)
  • Meteorological Forecasting, Data Measurement and Analysis
CONT

The extreme forecast index(EFI,...), developed at ECMWF [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts], is an example of an index that was designed to identify situations where the medium-range ensemble prediction system(EPS) forecasts are detecting extreme situations. Detection of extremes can be accomplished by comparing model forecasts to the underlying model climatology.

French

Domaine(s)
  • Prévisions météorologiques et mesure et analyse des données
CONT

L'EFI est un paramètre de prévision utilisé pour évaluer l'anormalité d'une situation météorologique prévue en se basant sur la différence entre la distribution du système de prévision d'ensemble et la climatologie du modèle du CEPMMT [Centre européen pour les prévisions météorologiques à moyen terme].

Spanish

Save record 2

Record 3 2022-10-17

English

Subject field(s)
  • Meteorological Forecasting, Data Measurement and Analysis
DEF

A set of different weather forecasts for the same forecast time, but generated from different models or from one model using different starting conditions.

OBS

[The] ensemble forecasts, which emphasize the features that the models agree on and deemphasize the ones they disagree on, typically represent the actual weather better than any one model in particular.

French

Domaine(s)
  • Prévisions météorologiques et mesure et analyse des données
CONT

Les prévisions d'ensemble sont conçues pour capturer la probabilité des évènements météorologiques et la zone d'incertitude inhérente à chaque situation prévue, de façon à ce que le prévisionniste sache quelle information passer au public.

Spanish

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Record 4 2022-10-17

English

Subject field(s)
  • Meteorological Forecasting, Data Measurement and Analysis
CONT

Ensemble Prediction Systems(EPS) are numerical weather prediction(NWP) systems that allow us to estimate the uncertainty in a weather forecast as well as the most likely outcome. Instead of running the NWP model once(a deterministic forecast), the model is run many times from very slightly different initial conditions.

French

Domaine(s)
  • Prévisions météorologiques et mesure et analyse des données
CONT

Les systèmes de prévision d'ensemble sont des systèmes de prévision numérique du temps qui nous permettent d'évaluer l'incertitude des prévisions météorologiques ainsi que leurs incidences les plus probables. Au lieu de faire tourner le modèle de prévision numérique une seule fois (prévision déterministe), on le fait tourner plusieurs fois avec des conditions initiales très légèrement différentes.

Spanish

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Record 5 2022-06-03

English

Subject field(s)
  • Meteorological Forecasting, Data Measurement and Analysis
  • Atmospheric Physics
CONT

To produce the UV index forecast, Environment and Climate Change Canada takes data from ozone measuring stations across the country to determine the present thickness of the ozone layer. A computer model then forecasts the thickness of the ozone layer over Canada for the next day. Combining the forecast of the ozone layer with data about the height and the angle of the sun gives a UV forecast for the next day, for a clear sunny sky. Adding the amount of cloud predicted in the weather forecast then gives the amount of UV that can actually be expected. The forecast gives the maximum amount of UV expected for the day. On a clear day with no clouds, this occurs at noon(or 1 p. m. for those on daylight time), when the sun is highest in the sky.

French

Domaine(s)
  • Prévisions météorologiques et mesure et analyse des données
  • Physique de l'atmosphère
CONT

Pour établir les prévisions de l'indice UV, Environnement et Changement climatique Canada utilise les données provenant des stations de mesure de l'ozone réparties dans l'ensemble du pays afin de déterminer l'épaisseur de la couche d'ozone. Un modèle informatique prévoit ensuite l'épaisseur de la couche d'ozone partout au Canada, pour le lendemain. La combinaison des prévisions concernant la couche d'ozone et des données relatives à la hauteur et à l'angle du soleil fournit une prévision de l'indice UV pour le lendemain, pour du temps dégagé et ensoleillé. On y ajoute la couverture nuageuse selon les prévisions météorologiques, ce qui permet de calculer la quantité de rayons UV prévue. La prévision indique la quantité maximale de rayons UV prévue pour la journée. Par temps dégagé sans nuages, celle-ci est atteinte à midi (ou à 13 h à l'heure avancée), lorsque le soleil est à son zénith.

Spanish

Save record 5

Record 6 2017-01-20

English

Subject field(s)
  • Meteorological Forecasting, Data Measurement and Analysis
CONT

Forecast Models: Forecasters use numerical weather models to make their forecasts. These numerical models are classified into four main classes. The first is global models, which focus on the entire northern hemisphere. The second is national models, which focus on the USA. The third is regional models. These regional models have a finer grid than national models and are run out for smaller periods of time. The final class of models is relocatable models, which do not focus on any permanent geographical location. Relocatable models are very limited on the size of the geographical area for which they can forecast, but these models have very high resolutions, or very small forecast grid boxes.

CONT

The data were distributed less than three hours after sensing to European and North American meteorological centers for assimilation into their weather forecast model.

Key term(s)
  • forecast weather model

French

Domaine(s)
  • Prévisions météorologiques et mesure et analyse des données
DEF

Simulation informatique qui reproduit les conditions atmosphériques présentes et qui permet d'évaluer comment elles vont évoluer dans les 10 prochains jours.

CONT

Le modèle de prévisions SEF (Ritchie 1991) est à la base des prévisions mensuelles. Il s'agit du même modèle qui est utilisé tous les jours pour les prévisions à moyen terme (jusqu'à 10 jours), mais pour lequel quelques modifications à la dynamique et à la physique ont été apportées pour qu'il puisse fonctionner en mode climat.

CONT

Dérivés des modèles de prévision du temps, les modèles numériques de prévision du climat nécessitent la description de processus complexes et la mise en œuvre d'importantes campagnes de mesures.

OBS

La prévision météorologique repose, pour une large part, sur l'emploi de logiciels de simulation numérique de l'atmosphère, couramment appelés «modèles».

Key term(s)
  • modèle de prévisions du temps
  • modèle de prévisions météorologiques

Spanish

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Record 7 2005-03-31

English

Subject field(s)
  • Weather Stations and Meteorological Instruments and Equipment
  • Remote Sensing
CONT

Her interest in history of meteorology is an ongoing project on the history of satellite remote sounding of meteorological data and the controversy over the use of satellite data in the operational weather forecast model.

OBS

meteorological sounding: Determination of the profile of the atmosphere at different altitudes, usually by means of radio or satellite signals.

OBS

remote sounding: The use of remote sensing equipment to observe and measure the characteristics of the Earth’s surface and various atmospheric elements.

OBS

Physical basis of remote sounding. A sounding is a vertical profile of atmospheric temperature, moisture or some other parameter. Soundings, including measurements of total water vapour content, total ozone, cloud height, cloud amount, surface temperature, etc., can be obtained from remote measurements of spectral radiance through carefully selected channels, often in the infrared (IR) or microwave regions of the electromagnetic spectrum.

French

Domaine(s)
  • Stations, instruments et équipements météorologiques
  • Télédétection
DEF

Détermination du profil vertical des paramètres d'état de l'atmosphère.

Spanish

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Record 8 2004-01-28

English

Subject field(s)
  • Modelling (Mathematics)
  • Meteorological Forecasting, Data Measurement and Analysis
DEF

For a numerical weather prediction model, statistical relations between model-forecast variables and observed weather variables, used for either correction of model-forecast variables or prediction of variables not explicitly forecast by the model.

CONT

Model output statistics [is] a set of statistical equations that uses model output to forecast the probability of precipitation, high and low temperature, cloud cover, and precipitation amount ...

CONT

Model output statistics... have often taken the form of multilinear regression equations derived by screening potential model-forecast variables as predictors. The method produces forecasts of weather variables that to some extent account for the random and systematic errors in the numerical weather prediction model.

OBS

The difference between model output statistics (MOS) and perfect prognostic is that in MOS the predictand is related to the actual model output, while in perfect prog, the predictand is related to observations or representations of them at (nearly) concurrent times.

OBS

model output statistics: term rarely used in the singular form (model output statistic).

Key term(s)
  • model output statistic

French

Domaine(s)
  • Modélisation (Mathématique)
  • Prévisions météorologiques et mesure et analyse des données
Key term(s)
  • statistique de sortie de modèle
  • statistique des sorties de modèle
  • donnée des prévisions numériques

Spanish

Campo(s) temático(s)
  • Modelización (Matemáticas)
  • Previsiones meteorológicas, medición y análisis de datos
Save record 8

Record 9 2002-09-17

English

Subject field(s)
  • Meteorological Forecasting, Data Measurement and Analysis
  • Air Transport
DEF

Specified period of time to which the conditions stated in a weather forecast refer.

CONT

The Costello Geomagnetic Activity Index model ... is a neural network algorithm that was trained on the response of the Kp geomagnetic activity index to solar wind parameters. The model takes the most recent two hours of solar wind data and returns a 3-hour activity index prediction in units of Kp. The valid time of the prediction is indicated on the output graphics by horizontal bars.

CONT

Guide to the Regional [Weather] Forecast Maps ... The "Forecast Period" gives the 24-hour time span for which the plotted data are valid.

CONT

... Weather Forecasting System.... The operational run schedule is listed in the table below. Each run is identified by three characters followed by the forecast length in hours. The first character is the model identification, and the next two digits are the initial hour. As an example G00+48h means a model "G" analysis at 00 UTC followed by a 48 hours forecast.

Key term(s)
  • validity period
  • forecast valid period
  • prediction valid time
  • period of validity of a forecast

French

Domaine(s)
  • Prévisions météorologiques et mesure et analyse des données
  • Transport aérien
DEF

Intervalle de temps spécifié pendant lequel les conditions indiquées dans une prévision météorologique sont valables.

OBS

période de validité des prévisions : terme uniformisé par le Comité d'uniformisation de la terminologie aéronautique (CUTA) - Opérations aériennes.

Key term(s)
  • période des prévisions
  • durée des prévisions

Spanish

Campo(s) temático(s)
  • Previsiones meteorológicas, medición y análisis de datos
  • Transporte aéreo
DEF

Período de tiempo especificado durante el cual tienen validez las condiciones enunciadas en una predicción meteorológica.

Save record 9

Record 10 1996-01-22

English

Subject field(s)
  • Informatics
  • Management Operations (General)
CONT

To prepare a [flood] forecast, the NWS [National Weather Service] runs two kinds of computer model. First, a hydrologic model calculates how much water is available from recent rain, snow and hail, the estimates how much of it will evaporate or seep into the ground.... Second, a hydraulic model routes the runoff downstream, summing the flows as watercourses merge.

CONT

... computer-based models of human behavior....

OBS

A Model of company operations is built through such techniques as simulation and mathematical programming to study the complex effects of various decisions. Constructing the model is often a huge task.

French

Domaine(s)
  • Informatique
  • Opérations de la gestion (Généralités)
CONT

[...] les enfants devaient pouvoir bénéficier [...] de ce que les modèles informatiques semblaient en mesure de donner forme concrète à des domaines de la connaissance qui avaient toujours paru, jusqu'alors, irrémédiablement intangibles et abstraits.

Spanish

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Record 11 1986-03-31

English

Subject field(s)
  • Meteorology
OBS

References :"Tests of a Fine-Mesh Model over Europe and the United States", Monthly Weather Review, Vol 107, pp 980-982, Richard Anthes and Daniel Keyser, August 1979, and "Case Study : Revised Analyses and Their Impact on a Numerical Forecast over the Eastern Pacific Ocean", E Kirkwood, & "Cloud and Precipitation Verification of CMC Subjective Prognosis", G Pellerin, in The Monthly Review, V II, No 12.

French

Domaine(s)
  • Météorologie

Spanish

Save record 11

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